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Showing posts with label life changes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label life changes. Show all posts
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Friday, July 10, 2009
Ups and Downs
We are all very aware that our current economic condition is not as positive as we would like. It seems that no matter how hard we try or what we do our hands are tied. Unemployment is up, prices are up, and investments are down. Thinking about this situation led me to investigate the state of our economy in the last 100 years to see if I could predict how long this would last.
Most experts agree that our financial system is cyclical; there have always been ups and downs. When we are down, like today, we can’t seem to remember the good times. When we are up we tend to believe that there is no down.
Look at this partial list from A History of American Agriculture 1776-1990. It exemplifies just what the experts have concluded. From the > on the list you can see that we have actually spent more time up than down, and we will be there again soon.
> 1909-18 Prosperity and war boom
1920-21 Sharp postwar recession
> 1922-29 Speculative boom
1929-1939 Great Depression
> 1939-45 Wartime recovery
> 1946-49 Postwar boom
> 1950-56 Korean war and postwar readjustment
1957-58 Recession
> 1958-70 Extended business expansion
1970-80 Inflation rates increased, while economic growth rates declined
1981-82 Recession
> 1983-88 Business expansion
1989-1991 Recession
> 1992-2000 Greatest economic expansion ever
The real lesson that we should learn from these patterns is fully ascribed in the Boy Scout motto—“Be Prepared”. If we planned and saved during the good times; we would be a lot more comfortable in the down ones. Living from paycheck to paycheck in the good times makes no sense. Any financial advisor will tell you that you should have an emergency fund of several month’s expenses for times like these. Even in lean times some savings activity should continue. It may not be easy, and it may not be very much money, but it is a good lesson in discipline that will serve you well, whatever the state of the economy.
Most experts agree that our financial system is cyclical; there have always been ups and downs. When we are down, like today, we can’t seem to remember the good times. When we are up we tend to believe that there is no down.
Look at this partial list from A History of American Agriculture 1776-1990. It exemplifies just what the experts have concluded. From the > on the list you can see that we have actually spent more time up than down, and we will be there again soon.
> 1909-18 Prosperity and war boom
1920-21 Sharp postwar recession
> 1922-29 Speculative boom
1929-1939 Great Depression
> 1939-45 Wartime recovery
> 1946-49 Postwar boom
> 1950-56 Korean war and postwar readjustment
1957-58 Recession
> 1958-70 Extended business expansion
1970-80 Inflation rates increased, while economic growth rates declined
1981-82 Recession
> 1983-88 Business expansion
1989-1991 Recession
> 1992-2000 Greatest economic expansion ever
The real lesson that we should learn from these patterns is fully ascribed in the Boy Scout motto—“Be Prepared”. If we planned and saved during the good times; we would be a lot more comfortable in the down ones. Living from paycheck to paycheck in the good times makes no sense. Any financial advisor will tell you that you should have an emergency fund of several month’s expenses for times like these. Even in lean times some savings activity should continue. It may not be easy, and it may not be very much money, but it is a good lesson in discipline that will serve you well, whatever the state of the economy.
Monday, June 8, 2009
What now...
The question is---how do you get back “up on the horse” after a week or more of major crises in your life? I’ve just had one of those weeks that none of us needs or deserves. In one week I had to face my mother’s death, major court mediation, and a car accident that came close to totaling my car (fortunately, nobody was hurt). These are all life changing experiences, but handled one at a time they can be easily endured. When they all happen in one week, they can each be monumental and difficult to handle. Your normal life definitely gets put on hold.
I have always believed that adversity is an opportunity to learn something of importance, whether it be how to address a problem or how not to do something. The most challenged, unsuccessful person in the world can be a great teacher of how not to confront a problem. This awareness can easily be spun into a positive lesson.
What am I supposed to be learning from last week, besides patience? As I look around on Monday morning trying to assess what this week might hold I realize that I have basically been in hiding. My mail has piled up, my house is a mess, the laundry is taking over and I don’t know where to start to dig out.
A friend has just suggested the standard advice, get up, dress up and show up. This just means putting on a happy face and moving forward. Another bit of advice that comes to mind is “fake it ‘til you make it.” This may be all I can do for now. It will probably take some time for me to really get back on track. I do know that forward momentum breeds forward momentum. Just because I’m overwhelmed now doesn’t mean that I will always be that way. Time will lead me out of this chaos and back on the path to serenity.
I have always believed that adversity is an opportunity to learn something of importance, whether it be how to address a problem or how not to do something. The most challenged, unsuccessful person in the world can be a great teacher of how not to confront a problem. This awareness can easily be spun into a positive lesson.
What am I supposed to be learning from last week, besides patience? As I look around on Monday morning trying to assess what this week might hold I realize that I have basically been in hiding. My mail has piled up, my house is a mess, the laundry is taking over and I don’t know where to start to dig out.
A friend has just suggested the standard advice, get up, dress up and show up. This just means putting on a happy face and moving forward. Another bit of advice that comes to mind is “fake it ‘til you make it.” This may be all I can do for now. It will probably take some time for me to really get back on track. I do know that forward momentum breeds forward momentum. Just because I’m overwhelmed now doesn’t mean that I will always be that way. Time will lead me out of this chaos and back on the path to serenity.
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